“According to a theory I formulated a long time ago, when a stock crosses the 100, 200, or 300 mark for the first time, the price does not stop at the round number and goes even higher, so if you buy the stock as soon as it crosses the mark, you are almost certain to make a profit. Cautious investors do not buy a stock after it has broken a price record. But I have made a lot of profit in the past by applying this theory of mine.”
I shared an excerpt above from the book “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” that I am currently reading – I will share a more detailed review of the book in the coming days. – The funny thing is, I instantly had the opportunity to test the idea above. Silver, which has been making an incredible rally lately, was at the $100 per ounce threshold. I thought about what I could do in response; I wanted to test this theory with a small amount of money; therefore, I considered opening a leveraged position on a crypto exchange for a token pegged to the price of physical silver; I chose 90x as the leverage. (For those who don’t know, a 100x leverage allows you to use your $1 like $100. This way, a one-point increase becomes 100 points for you; and a 1-point drop is also 100 points. Therefore, there is a liquidation price, and when the instrument reaches this price, you get liquidated, and all your money is gone. Leverage is not investing; it is speculation and gambling. For example, you made a $100 purchase for Silver at a price of $100 and used 100x leverage. If the price of silver drops to $99.00, your total loss will be $100, so the position closes automatically; if the price of silver goes up to $101, you earn $100.) Frankly, this idea came to my mind two days ago, and I placed a buy order on this exchange for the moment it crosses $100, and I allocated a sum of $150 for this order. Since I thought this movement could be volatile, I also placed an automatic close order if the price of silver dropped below 99.58 points.
Today, while I was studying, I received an email stating that the buy order had been executed. I opened the silver price and started watching it, and after seeing $100, it dropped below 99.5 again, and I assumed my stop-loss order had kicked in, but when I opened my account, I encountered a much weirder situation. You can see the email and the note written in the account below:
As can be understood from the picture, even though such an email arrived, my transaction did not actually execute in the first place. The moment I saw this message, I was relieved because if it had executed, I would have been liquidated. Afterward, I checked the price of silver all day. The final situation is like this:
So, just as it says in the book, once the price crossed $100, it advanced up to 102.8 points, apart from dipping down a couple of times. This way, I have half-tested this theory. I will try again with lower leverage at the next opportunity; when I do, I will make a note of it here again. The leverage I use needs to allow for a 1% margin of fluctuation after the price crosses the 100, 200, 300 mark. Even though I could have made $400-$500 from my speculation today, if things continued like this, maybe one day I would lose all the money I speculated with. I learned that even if you know what the price will be after a certain period, you also need to pay attention to the price movements until it reaches that point.
First of all, I would like to summarize the main idea of the book in a single sentence: The path to wealth goes not through luck, but through saving money and making the right investments; people constantly spend their income on others but forget themselves in the process, and to become wealthy, the moment one receives their income, they must first keep at least 10% of it for themselves (it can be more if it doesn’t lower their quality of life) and learn to make the ‘right’ investments with this money.
The important quotes I underlined in the book are as follows:
“A man’s wealth is not in the purse he carries. A fat purse quickly empties if there is no golden stream to refill it. Arkad’s secret to always keeping his purse full is that he has an income coming from somewhere, no matter how much he spends.”
In this quote, what is meant by the phrase “has an income coming from somewhere” is that he had saved 10% of his salary in the past and invested it, and as a result, the money is now coming to him passively.
“‘But is not all I earn mine to keep?’ I continued. ‘Far from it. Do you not pay the garment-maker? Do you not pay the sandal-maker? Do you not pay for the things you eat? Can you live in Babylon without spending? What have you to show for your earnings of the past month? What for the past year? Fool! You pay to everyone but yourself. You labor for others. You might as well be a slave and work for what your master gives you to eat and wear. If you kept for yourself one-tenth of all you earn, how much would you have in ten years?’ (…) A part of all you earn is yours to keep. It should be not less than a tenth no matter how little you earn. It can be as much more as you can afford. Pay yourself first. Do not buy from the clothes-maker and the sandal-maker more than you can pay out of the rest and still have enough for food and charity and penance to the gods.”
This quote conveys that a person actually spends the money they earned by investing their own time on everyone but themselves, and for this reason, they cannot possess any tangible wealth, emphasizing that one must pay themselves first as soon as they earn the money. This amount doesn’t have to be a high figure like 30% or 40%; on the contrary, a 10% amount, which won’t drastically change the person’s past living conditions, should be the absolute minimum. It should not be forgotten that wealth is relative and depends on how much a person spends. Person X’s understanding of wealth, Person Y’s understanding of wealth, and the amount of money they need to have to be wealthy are different.
“‘Every gold piece you save is a slave to work for you. Every copper it earns is its child that also can work for you. If you would become wealthy, then what you save must earn, and its children must earn, that all may help to give to you the abundance you crave.’ (…) Wealth, like a tree, grows from a tiny seed. The first copper you save is the seed from which your tree of wealth shall grow. The sooner you plant that seed the sooner shall the tree grow. And the more faithfully you nourish and water it with consistent savings, the sooner may you bask in contentment beneath its shade.”
Here, it explains that a person should not only save 10%, but also invest it. With the sentence “If you would become wealthy, then what you save must earn, and its children must earn, that all may help to give to you the abundance you crave,” it actually emphasizes that the money earned from investments should be reinvested. This highlights the concept of compound interest, often referred to as the 8th wonder of the world and attributed to Albert Einstein, which allows money to grow exponentially by adding earnings on top of earnings.
“As my savings increased, I occasionally had the urge to spend; I wanted to buy the good things the merchants brought by ships from the lands of the Phoenicians or on camels from other places. But I wisely held myself back.”
This statement actually explains that as people get richer, the only thing that increases is not their income; their expenses also increase due to the rise in living standards, and people need to be cautious about this situation. To become wealthy, the money earned should not be spent but accumulated and yield returns until it exceeds the amount covering a person’s needs and wants.
(Upon the character making a wrong and illogical investment with the money he saved) “‘Why trust the knowledge of a brickmaker about jewels? Would you go to the breadmaker to inquire about the stars? No, by my tunic, you would go to the astrologer, if you had power to think. Your savings are gone, youth, you have jerked your wealth-tree up by the roots. But plant another. Try again. And next time if you would have advice about jewels, go to the jewel merchant. If you would know the truth about sheep, go to the herdsman. Advice is one thing that is freely given away, but watch that you take only what is worth having. He who takes advice about his savings from one who is inexperienced in such matters, shall pay with his savings for proving the falsity of their opinions,’ he said, and went away.”
As I just mentioned; it emphasizes that the place where a person invests their money should be a field they understand or with someone who understands the subject.
(Upon him taking this advice and investing his next savings in the right place) “‘This time I entrusted my savings to Aggar the shield maker, to buy bronze, and each fourth month he pays me the rental.’ ‘That is good. And what do you do with the rental?’ ‘I do have a great feast with honey and fine wine and spiced cake. Also I have bought me a scarlet tunic. And some day I shall buy me a young ass upon which to ride.’ Algamish laughed at what I said. ‘You do eat the children of your savings. Then how do you expect them to work for you?’”
It is emphasized that even if the investment is made in the right place, attention should also be paid to the concept of “Compound Interest” that I just mentioned.
“Arkad, you have learned your lessons well. You first learned to live upon less than you could earn. Next you learned to seek advice from those who were competent through their own experiences to give it. And, lastly, you have learned to make gold work for you.”
It briefly summarizes the mentioned advice.
“My advice is, take the wisdom of Algamish and say to yourselves, ‘A part of all I earn is mine to keep.’ Say it in the morning when you first arise. Say it at noon. Say it at night. Say it each hour of every day. Say it to yourself until the words stand out like letters of fire across the sky.”
“Guard thy treasure from loss by investing only where thy principal is safe. High interest rates are deceitful sirens that sing but to lure the unwary upon the rocks of loss and remorse. ‘Provide also that thy family may not want should the Gods call thee to thy realms. For such protection it is always possible to make provision with small payments at regular intervals. Therefore the provident man delays not in expectation of a large sum becoming available for such a wise purpose. (…) A small and safe return is far more desirable than risk. ‘Enjoy life while you are here. Do not overstrain or try to save too much. If one-tenth of all you earn is as much as you can comfortably keep, be content to keep this portion. Live otherwise according to your income and let not yourself get niggardly and afraid to spend. Life is good and life is rich with things worthwhile and things to enjoy.’”
It discusses that the risk and return of the investment made should be balanced. It mentions that if it cannot be tolerated, high risks should be avoided. At the same time, it emphasizes that life is temporary, and therefore, one should not forget to enjoy life by trying to save too much.
“The First Cure: Start thy purse to fattening (…) The Second Cure: Control thy expenditures (…) The Third Cure: Make thy gold multiply (…) The Fourth Cure: Guard thy treasures from loss (…) The Fifth Cure: Make of thy dwelling a profitable investment (…) The Sixth Cure: Insure a future income (…) The Seventh Cure: Increase thy ability to earn.”
Pay yourself first. You must set aside a certain portion of every money you earn (the rate recommended in the book is 10%) before spending it. Transferring money to a savings account before paying bills or debts is the first step in wealth building. Distinguish between wants and needs. As your income increases, your expenses should not increase (avoid “Lifestyle Inflation”). You must determine the difference between your mandatory needs and arbitrary desires and create a budget. Saving starts not with increasing income, but with managing expenses. Make your money work (Compound Interest). Letting your saved money sit idle will not make you rich. You must turn that money into an investment (stocks, funds, interest, business partnerships, etc.) and let the money earn money. In modern language, this is called creating passive income. Manage risks. Do not fall for get-rich-quick promises. Protecting your principal comes before making a profit when investing. Instead of getting into businesses you do not know, you should consult experts and prefer reliable, solid investments. Own property. The book advises owning your own home instead of paying rent. This way, your cost of living decreases, and the property you own appreciates over time and becomes an asset for you. Plan for retirement. While you are young and strong, you must invest for your old age and your family’s future. Insurance, private pension systems, or long-term dividend investments fall under this category. Invest in yourself. Your biggest asset is yourself. Improving your professional skills, learning new things, and gaining experience is the surest way to increase your potential income. When you are more knowledgeable and skilled, you earn more.
If I were to summarize the book, this is what I would say, but I must note that the book is much more detailed and also delves into debt, luck, and Babylon, a great city and empire built on the Euphrates River; I definitely recommend reading it. Personally, I knew I had to invest a portion of my income every month and was trying to do so, but because I left this to the very end, there were periods when I had no/little money left. However, the biggest habit I will change after reading the book will be investing my income the moment I receive it…
I didn’t do anything personally in December, I just studied for my classes. I have 2 exams in mid-February and my goal is to pass both. Although the number two seems quite small, their content is just as extensive. This month, I started reading books regularly again. To start reading books again, I bought myself a Kindle, and I am really happy that I did. Because I spent some money on it, I force myself to read, and rather than constantly buying books and having them take up space in my tiny dorm room, I am happy to have a library that I can carry with me all the time. This month I read the book “The Richest Man in Babylon” and currently I am reading “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”. I will review the books I read in more detail and share them on my blog.
December 2025 was a critical month where both wage and monetary policies for 2026 were determined in Turkey, and central banks in global markets confirmed “soft landing” scenarios.
Here is a summary of the most important economic and financial developments in December 2025:
The hottest topics on Turkey’s agenda were the 2026 minimum wage and the CBRT’s interest rate cut cycle.
2026 Minimum Wage Announced (December 23):
As a result of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission’s work, the Net Minimum Wage to be effective from January 1, 2026, was announced as 28,075.50 TL, and the Gross Minimum Wage as 33,030.00 TL. This figure indicated an annual increase of approximately 65% compared to 2025 (based on the 17,002 TL in January 2025). This figure, announced after intense negotiations between the business world and trade unions, was determined by considering the balance between inflation targeting and the welfare share.
CBRT Cuts Interest Rates (December 11):
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) lowered its policy rate by 150 basis points from 39.5% to 38% at the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the year. The decision text emphasized that November inflation falling below expectations and the decline in the underlying trend of inflation supported the rate cut. This move was interpreted as a clear sign of a transition from a tight monetary policy to gradual easing.
November Inflation Stays Below Expectations (December 3):
According to the data announced by TURKSTAT, in November 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.87% on a monthly basis and 31.07% on an annual basis. The Domestic Producer Price Index (D-PPI) increased by 27.23% annually. The monthly inflation permanently falling below 1% became a source of morale for the 2026 inflation targets (the journey to single digits).
Services Inflation and Rent Increases:
Although the Services Producer Price Index (S-PPI) continued to remain above headline inflation with an annual increase of 34.93% (December 31 data), a loss of momentum was observed.
It was a month in the global economy where “the end of the fight against inflation has been reached” and interest rate cuts gained momentum.
Fed Continues Interest Rate Cuts (December 10):
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered its policy rate by another 25 basis points at its December meeting, bringing the target range to 3.50% – 3.75%. The Fed Chair confirmed that the US economy has brought inflation under control without entering a recession (soft landing). A signal for gradual cuts was also given for 2026.
ECB Keeps Interest Rates Steady (December 18):
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged at its final meeting of the year. The deposit facility rate was held steady at 2.00%, and the main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%. The ECB transitioned to a “wait-and-see” policy, predicting that Eurozone inflation would settle at the 2% target in the medium term. Growth forecasts for 2026 were revised slightly upwards (1.2%) in the decision text.
Global Commodity and Energy Prices:
Oil prices followed a calm course in the 70-75 dollar band, driven by the moderate pace of global demand and supply balance. This situation positively affected the current account balance and inflation outlook of energy-importing countries like Turkey. Gold prices (Ounce) closed 2025 at a strong level as the Fed’s interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks decreased.
(Summarized using Artificial Intelligence.)
Last month, the BIST100 increased by 2.21% in dollar terms, and the S&P500 increased by 0.2%. Against these two indices, my portfolio increased by 1.47%.
This is what my US Funds and Stocks look like. Compared to last month, I added NLR, SGMT, HGBL, WRLD, a SNAP Call Option, and WYFI to my portfolio.
The NLR fund is a fund focusing on nuclear energy and the SMR side. Actually, my history with this fund runs deep. I found this fund two years ago when I was researching nuclear energy in high school. From that day to this, the fund has roughly doubled, but I hadn’t bought it because, frankly, I didn’t have confidence in myself.
This fund may not have doubled my money, but it taught me something very important. There are three ways to make money in the stock market as a retail investor. The first is to passively invest in an index. The second is to invest in small-cap companies because large investment firms cannot invest in companies with low valuations. The reason for this is simple. The amount they are going to invest is huge, and investing in such firms can affect the price quite a bit. Also, the return on small investments is not worth the hassle for big firms. The third is to predict the sectors of the future before anyone else and invest with self-confidence. Well, the NLR fund taught me this 3rd lesson, and in return, I made an investment that I think I will never sell, just to constantly remind myself. Every time I look at NLR, I will remember this investment lesson.
Although I don’t understand the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors, I bought SGMT with a small amount because I thought it should be more valuable in the future.
I invested a small amount in WRLD and HGBL as well, because they are deeply undervalued when their assets and discounted future cash flows are evaluated.
WYFI, on the other hand, is very different. This is another artificial intelligence company in my portfolio. WYFI offers data center operations, cloud computing, and GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) services, and is building a data center in a huge area by working with experts.
Lastly, the SNAP option. This is the first option I added to my portfolio that isn’t for trial purposes. I think Snapchat is extremely undervalued, but I am also aware that it will be a quite risky investment. Therefore, instead of buying shares directly, I bought a 1-year option. Frankly, the price of the option went up after I bought it, but it’s not worth selling. For this reason, I will hold onto it.
I added NVO back to my Other Funds and Stocks. This company, which really caught me off guard, at least lowered the amount of tax I had to pay, so I am not too bothered by it 🙂 However, not buying it at this price would be something I’d personally refuse to do.
Apart from this, I hold a very small amount of Bitcoin in my portfolio and expect it to drop in the future. The zones I am expecting are the 75-70k range, and when it reaches this area, I want to gradually allocate 10% of my portfolio to Bitcoin.
Also, my CS2 investments are going quite well. Since these are very volatile and long-term, instant price changes do not affect me.
As Fixed Income, 6.42% of my portfolio is waiting to be invested during a downturn.
Additionally, 2.67% of my portfolio is kept as gold.
As for cash, there is a 6% slice. The reason this is in cash and not in fixed income is that I will be making an investment in the BIST very soon.
The final topic I want to add is the BES (Private Pension System). I opened a BES account for myself and I contribute 5% of my income every month. My contract consists of 90% Gold and 10% Silver. Frankly, buying state-supported precious metals is a huge benefit, and that is why I wanted to use it. Since I pay via credit card, every purchase is executed 36 days later. In my next monthly portfolio update, I will also add my BES savings under the “Commodities” section.
That’s all for this month. I wish everyone a highly profitable, and more importantly, a healthy, peaceful, instructive, and fair year.
In this series, I aim to address investment literacy systematically, from the fundamental level to the advanced level. Below, I am sharing the outline containing the topics I have been working on for about a week. I will advance my articles in parallel with this list.
I am aware that the number of topics is large; however, when the series is completed, I aim to create a holistic and permanent reference source for investing. My intention is to build a step-by-step framework that is not scattered, but rather one that could be called “the book of investing.”
Investing 101: Why Does Only Saving Make You Poorer?
The Inflation Monster: Real Return and the Time Value of Money
The 8th Wonder of the World: Compound Return and the Snowball Effect
Goal-Based Investing: What, When, and How Much Do You Need?
Safety Net: Emergency Fund (How Much, Where Should It Be Kept?)
Debt Management: How Loan Interests Eat Up Your Investment Returns?
Investment vs. Speculation: Understanding the Difference in Game Plans
What is Risk? The Difference Between Volatility, Drawdown, and Permanent Loss
The Sleep Test: Your Risk Profile and Behavioral Tolerance
Asset Class Map: Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Cash, and Beyond
How to Make Money? Capital Appreciation, Dividends, Rent, and “Carry”
Field Guide: Broker Selection, Account Types, and Security
Order Types: Market, Limit, Stop Orders, and Beginner Mistakes
Invisible Costs: Commissions, Spreads, Taxes, and Fund Expenses
Investor Hygiene: Scammers, “Guaranteed Return” Lies, and Social Media
Stocks 101: What Does Partnership Mean? (Rights and Risks)
Bonds/Bills 101: Being a Creditor (Coupon, Maturity, and Pricing)
Interest and Bond Relationship: Why Do Bonds Drop When Interest Rates Rise? (Duration)
The Yield Curve: What is the Market Saying About the Future?
Credit Risk: Government Bonds vs. Corporate Bonds (Spread Logic)
Commodities and Gold: When Does the “Safe Haven” Myth Work?
Foreign Currency: An Investment Tool or a Protective Shield?
Real Estate: The Reality of Rent Multiplier, Liquidity, and Maintenance Costs
Crypto Assets: Volatility, Custody, and Fundamental Risks
Mutual Funds and ETFs: Why Are They the Best Solution for Most People?
The Art of Choosing Funds: TEFAS Analysis and Proper Benchmarking
ETF Mechanics: Tracking Error, Dividend Yield, and Liquidity
Diversification: Correlation and Avoiding “Single Point of Failure Risk”
Asset Allocation: The Real Decision That Determines Returns
Timing Strategy: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) or Lump Sum Investing?
An economic bubble is when investors speculate forward, buying an asset based on the expectation that it can be sold at an even higher price in the future rather than its present value, causing the asset’s price to rise far above its intrinsic value to levels that cannot be explained by logic and economics. (Item 1)
Bubbles generally grow with the belief that the growth in a sector can continue indefinitely. For this reason, momentary statistics such as intrinsic value and P/E ratio lose their importance for investors and reach absurd values (Item 2) (it is important to keep this part in mind.)
So how do bubbles burst? There are 2 main reasons for bubbles to burst. The first is that companies fail to meet expectations and cannot generate the expected earnings on their balance sheets, and the second is the increase in interest rates or the deterioration of the general economy. As a result of bubbles bursting, major pullbacks occur in the prices of assets in the affected sector, and prices reach “reasonable” levels again [18]. (Item 3)
Dot-com Bubble
I want to start my article by first explaining the Dot-com bubble. The internet sector, which began to popularize in the 1990s, grows significantly because investors and the media think it will develop much more in the future, and it receives excessive investment from the outside with high income expectations. In addition, with the contribution of economic growths such as low inflation, rapid GDP growth, and low interest rates in the United States, the number of “.com” ventures increases [17]. (Item 1)
Since it is thought that all ventures and companies should have a website, stock prices soar because investors think that companies with websites will be much bigger in the future, whether they make a profit or not. Furthermore, starting from 1998, initial public offerings of internet-based companies increase, and between 1995 and 2000, the Nasdaq index rises from 1,000 points to 5,000 points. (Item 2)
Then in 2000, with capital slowly beginning to disappear, expected high revenues not materializing, and the financial structures of companies slowly beginning to deteriorate, a major correction begins in the markets. In the years before the bubble formed, record-low interest rates, the spread of the internet, and the increased interest in technology companies allowed capital to flow abundantly, especially into newly established companies with no track record of success. Valuations rose rapidly, and eventually, the cash flow stopped. Between March 10, 2000, and October 4, 2002, the Nasdaq dropped from 5,048 points to 1,139.90 points, a decrease of 76.81%. The stock prices of internet giants like Amazon, Cisco, Intel, and Oracle faced a drop of more than 80% [19]. (Item 3)
But let’s talk about the present by looking at this situation from a different perspective. Amazon’s stock price dropped from $3 to $0.35 with the burst of the bubble; today it is $245.05. Oracle’s stock price dropped from $46 to $9; today it is $245. In short, on the stock market, companies that are truly innovative and fill a gap that needs to exist in the future will reach the place they deserve in the long run. Here, I would like to remind you of Cullen Roche’s quote: The stock market is the only market where all the customers run out of the store when everything goes on sale.
Artificial Intelligence (Bubble)
Let’s come to the present. It has been 3 years since the emergence of ChatGPT. If you are reading this article, you probably also know that there is a world of difference between ChatGPT’s initial capacity and its current capacity. At its simplest, the Artificial Intelligence that initially could only share things that happened up to a certain time solely through text, can today exponentially generate videos from just a sentence as if they were shot with a camera. Well, this rapid rise of Artificial Intelligence didn’t just stay within itself; it also leaped to the stock market. In this article, I will address both the similarities of Artificial Intelligence with the dot-com bubble and the fundamental differences that separate it from it.
So why did this “AI Race” flare up? There are basically two reasons why companies adopt AI: The first is that there is a market for AI, and when used correctly, it increases company efficiency. The second is FOMO, that is, Fear Of Missing Out. I will make this point more concrete with two examples. In every era, there are themes that companies must adopt. For example, Google, which learned a great lesson from the decline in Yahoo’s market value in the past, currently possesses the best AI model on the fly. As a second example, in an interview regarding the topic of AI, Mark Zuckerberg says: “AI might be a bubble, but ‘misspending a couple hundred billion dollars’ is worth it to reach superintelligence. It’s highly probable that AI is a bubble, and if we end up misspending a couple hundred billion dollars, it will of course be very unfortunate. But I can say this, I think the real risk is on the other side. At least for a company like Meta, the risk lies in not being aggressive enough rather than being a little too aggressive. [0]”. There is no doubt that AI will be with us in the future as well, but when it comes to the stock market, according to research, 54% of investors state that we are in an AI bubble, and 60% state that stocks are inflated [14].
Famous investor Michael Burry, who noticed the situation before the 2008 American housing price bubble burst and invested against the housing market, which was thought would never burst at the time, announced in recent months that he also took positions against Palantir and Nvidia, companies that experienced massive increases in their stocks by utilizing AI [15] [20].
Furthermore, Sam Altman, one of the founders of OpenAI, the owner of ChatGPT, said in an interview on August 18, 2025, that the AI industry is heading towards a bubble due to expenses.
The Shiller P/E Ratio, which tracks the Price/Earnings ratio of the S&P500 index containing the top 500 companies in the United States, is at the 40.46 level. (The Shiller P/E ratio, compared to normal P/E ratios, compares stock prices to inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years). You can see the historical background of the Shiller P/E Ratio below:
Shiller P/E Ratio [16]So what is this Price/Earnings ratio? This ratio is a fundamental financial metric that proportions the stock price of the tracked value to its earnings per share (EPS) and indicates whether the current market price of this stock is high or low relative to its earnings. For example, if one lot of Company A’s stock trades at 58₺ and its earnings per share over the last 12 months is 3₺, the P/E ratio of this stock is calculated as 58/3=19.3, and the stock is priced at 19.3 years of the company’s profit. This means that for the current price of the stock to make sense, it must maintain its annual profit for another 19.3 years. [1]
When looking at the Shiller P/E Ratio, you can see that the previous peak formed during the Dot-com bubble and was at levels of 44. So let’s come to the AI giants and their P/E ratios:
The P/E ratio of the company Nvidia—which in the past generally produced graphics cards for gamers and caused its stock prices to increase due to the increasing importance of graphics cards with the birth of AI—is currently 45.69. That is, it needs to maintain its current profit for 45.69 years.
The P/E ratio of the company Palantir—which develops software platforms in the fields of big data analytics and AI; specifically offering systems that help governments (defense, intelligence) and large companies make sense of complex datasets and make decisions—is currently an astonishing 743.86! Investors who look at the current price of Palantir shares and buy them think that the company can maintain its annual profit level for 743 years (+11 months)…
Finally, I would like to give a general overview of the sector. The P/E ratio of the “Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence” fund, which invests in AI companies in general, is 37.12, and the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Information Technology Index is 40.22.
It is obvious how absurd these ratios are without the need for deeper research. But when this is so clear, how can the stock prices of these companies continue to rise? Because companies are still positively exceeding profit expectations. For example, according to the balance sheet of the company Nvidia announced last month, the company’s annual revenue was announced as $57 billion, exceeding expectations of $54.9 billion. But are these returns really sustainable? This is where things start to heat up.
First of all, the energy need of AI is increasing day by day. Therefore, the only logical solution seems to be nuclear energy. So much so that there are even nuclear energy companies where OpenAI founder Sam Altman is a partner. Because of this need, along with AI, the prices of nuclear energy companies, especially Small Modular Reactors, have increased considerably. The amount of energy needed for OpenAI alone is equivalent to 26 nuclear power plants. Looking at AI in general, by 2030, $7 trillion is expected to be spent just on energy needs [2]. In comparison, the US capital expenditure in 2024 was $8 trillion [3].
But a more critical point than the energy need is circular investments. In the chart below, you can see the investments AI companies make in each other [4]:
The most important point here is that after every deal is announced, the stock prices of the two companies making the deal also increase. Even after the chart above was shared, deals continued to be made, and stock prices continued to rise as if nothing happened. And the company right in the middle of this circular investment, making the most deals, is Nvidia, which I mentioned above. When the chart is examined, it is seen that Nvidia invests in every company, large or small, and in return receives investments, albeit indirectly. I want to make this situation clearer with a small example. Imagine a pickaxe seller. Beyond selling pickaxes as should normally be the case, this seller pays gold miners to buy pickaxes from their shop. The exact same situation, as can be seen above, exists among AI companies.
This is the biggest argument of those who think AI is a bubble. During the Dot-com bubble, such circular investments were particularly famous among companies like Nortel. (Nortel stocks had reached the $87 level with the Dot-com bubble, and practically dropped to 0 with the burst of the bubble [5].) So what will be the end of so much investment? Will this bubble grow forever? Of course not. The investments made bring along revenue targets as well, and as I said before, the end of bubbles is brought about by failing to meet expectations. Studies predict that for AI companies to meet expectations, their annual revenues need to be around $2 trillion by 2030 [6]. For comparison, this amount is MORE than the TOTAL 2024 revenues of Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia. In contrast, according to research by Citi Group, AI revenue in 2025 is projected to be only $43 billion [7].
While major technology companies are aggressively making CAPEX expenditures (CAPEX (Capital Expenditure) is major investments a company makes to purchase, upgrade, or maintain physical assets to increase long-term growth and operational capacity), the information that Oracle’s gross profit margin in new AI data centers is only around 14% shows how difficult it might be to get a return on these investments [23]. According to calculations, for AI companies to recover the capital they invested (in the base scenario), they are expected to generate approximately $250 billion in AI revenue annually. [23]
Let’s look at possible scenarios. First of all, building the energy infrastructure required for AI to achieve these returns is a long process in itself. Economics is the social science that studies how people will meet their unlimited needs due to the scarcity (insufficiency) of existing resources; scarcity is the insufficiency of factors of production in the face of unlimited human wants. In my personal opinion, in the AI sector, there is a dilemma between energy scarcity and the time required to resolve this scarcity. Although nuclear power plants might seem like a quick solution, for instance, in the US, the acceptance of Nuclear Reactor applications alone can take 5 years [8].
Another important point is OpenAI. Although there are alternatives to Nvidia, the largest circle in the chart above, the fact that every company makes deals with OpenAI, which is relatively not that big, shows that the AI ecosystem is dependent on a small company (OpenAI is a private company, and according to recent investments, the company’s value is $500 billion; in comparison, Nvidia’s value is $4.5 trillion). If OpenAI, which has made deals with almost all AI companies, cannot sustain the deals, other companies in the AI ecosystem may have to revise their plans. OpenAI, in this position, at least looking from the outside, seems to rely on the support that could come from the US government. Of course, the company that would profit in such a possible scenario is Microsoft. Holding approximately 25% of OpenAI shares, Microsoft might try to acquire OpenAI completely in a potential situation, but this would only be positive for Microsoft.
As you may have noticed, I haven’t mentioned a country other than the US throughout my article, but our third scenario is about China, the rival of the US. Actually, thinking about it now, my not mentioning China throughout my article shows that the probability of this scenario occurring should not be ignored. Almost all publicly traded AI companies are in the United States, and no one knows what China is doing regarding AI. China is like a black box, but despite this, the US is trying to restrict chip shipments to China as much as possible to win the AI war. The last thing that came out of China and turned US stock markets upside down in a day was DeepSeek. Until that day, because there appeared to be no competition between countries, not much attention was paid to optimization on the US side, and therefore on the day DeepSeek was announced, with the entry of a model from a rival country into the market, Nvidia dropped by 17% and the S&P 500 Technology Index dropped by 5.6% on the same day [11]. In addition, chips such as the Ascend chips produced by Huawei are being produced in China to reduce dependence on the US [12]. China’s other trump card is open source. Compared to US-origin AIs like ChatGPT and Gemini, China is aware that it needs to follow a different route to capture the market, and therefore, for example, DeepSeek was released as open-source. People who wanted could “download” DeepSeek to their computers and use it offline [13]. [21]
Looking at the problems of AI independent of all external factors, the biggest problem is definitely the data limit. Leading figures in the AI world state that the limits of scaling laws, which have been the strategy of “larger model, more data, more processing power” ongoing for the last 5 years, are being approached. OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever said “data is the fossil fuel of AI” and stated that peak data on the internet has been reached, and simply scaling up will no longer be enough [24].
Although AI is similar to the Dot-com bubble in many ways, there are also ways in which it is not. For example, unlike the Dot-com bubble, as I just mentioned, there are also financials and earnings supporting most of the valuations AI companies possess. Looking at the overall market, Morgan Stanley stated that the cash flow generated by S&P 500 companies compared to their current valuations is three times higher than the period before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 [9]. Furthermore, compared to 2000 when 36% of technology companies were making losses, today only 19% of technology companies are making losses [10]. AI giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google are recording massive year-over-year revenue increases between 30% and 80% [22].
During the Dot-com era, many companies like perts.com and Webvan had billion-dollar valuations with almost no revenue. Looking at today, companies like OpenAI and XAI, contrary to this, generate revenues in the billions of dollars [22]. At the same time, AI is closely related to the real economy due to requiring infrastructures such as data centers, energy, etc., and creates value in the economy not only with its products but also through the process of building these products. Although the internet was needed as infrastructure in the Dot-com bubble, the difference between market expectations and application in the real economy was much higher [22]. Companies like Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia also have a debt/equity ratio of around 5% to 30%, and these companies have large cash positions in their coffers.
Finally, against the currently irrational-looking AI market, I would like to remind you of John Maynard Keynes’s quote: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
Every year in December, I will determine the goals I will set for myself for the following year and, at the same time, evaluate how much of the goals I set the previous year I have achieved. This way, I will not only have concrete objectives to focus on throughout the year, but in my spare time, I will also be able to return to these goals and clearly see which areas I need to concentrate on.
The goals I have set for myself for 2026 are as follows:
To successfully pass all the exams in my department; not to fail any exams.
To continue publishing content regularly on my blog.
To start a small-scale venture that can provide me with passive or semi-active income.
To regain my reading habit and read a book for 30–60 minutes every night possible.
To grow my investment portfolio above the 1,000,000 TL level by the end of the year (approximately 23,600 USD at the current exchange rate).
To at least double the return of the S&P500 index over the year.
To reduce my social media usage to zero as much as possible; to quit doom-scrolling completely and to be able to just browse the content sent by my friends or shared by the people I follow and then put the phone away. This goal also includes general phone usage. I do not want to look at my phone for more than 2 hours a day.
To write in my journal consistently without missing a day.
I will come back in December of next year and write in detail what I have achieved and what I haven’t.
November was one of the months where I studied intensely. Even though I went to Istanbul towards the end of the month, I studied an average of 4 hours a day. The most important thing I learned this month is that in college, one really doesn’t have any time to build a startup or dedicate time to hobbies; especially if you are in a difficult major. All my days pass the same way; wake up in the morning, go to the library, study until the evening, come home and rest. The weekend is the same. Fortunately, I study together with my friends and since I can study with discipline every day, it doesn’t cause a problem, I’m used to it now.
No matter how hard it gets, when I think about it, I really say I’m glad I chose to study mathematics, especially at a regular university rather than a technical one. We are seeing pure mathematics exactly as I wanted, and no matter how difficult it is, it is quite enjoyable.
Last month, I also bought myself a Kindle to improve my reading habit. I read for half an hour to an hour before going to bed. The books I read are not about investing and economics, but consist of classics. I will write about the books I find beautiful in the future.
As for the important economic/political developments that took place last month;
CHP 39th Ordinary Convention: At the convention held in the last days of November, Özgür Özel was elected as the chairman for the 4th time. Intra-party leadership debates are expected to be shelved for a while with this result.
Investigations Against Municipalities: Investigations and detention news initiated with allegations of “corruption and irregularity” regarding some municipalities such as Adana and Büyükçekmece raised political tension. While the opposition characterized this situation as “political pressure”, the government wing emphasized the “judicial process”.
Visit of Pope Leo XIV: Head of the Vatican State, Pope Leo XIV, came to Istanbul and Iznik as part of an official visit. This visit went down in history as an important diplomatic step in terms of both interfaith dialogue and Turkey’s faith tourism potential.
Poll Results: According to the AREA Research poll published in November, it was seen that CHP maintained its position as the leading party, but the rate of undecided voters was around 23%. This situation shows that voters maintain their distance from the current political parties.
CBRT and Inflation: Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan stated that the disinflation process continues but its pace has slowed down. November inflation data and the CBRT’s tight stance messages postponed interest rate cut expectations in the markets.
Credit Limitations: Imposing a budget limit on Treasury-backed Halkbank loans increased access to finance concerns, especially on the side of SMEs and tradesmen.
Industry Inspections: The Ministry of Industry tightened its inspections for non-compliant products and imposed fines amounting to 278 million TL. This step was interpreted as a move to increase production quality and prevent unfair competition.
COP30 Climate Summit (Brazil): At the summit held in Belém, countries conducted tough negotiations on climate finance and emission targets. Although the summit closed with the message that “climate cooperation is still alive”, the inability to take radical decisions was a subject of criticism.
Ukraine Peace Talks: The Ukrainian delegation going to the USA to discuss the peace plan raised questions about whether a new window could be opened for the resolution of the war through diplomatic means.
US-China Trade “Truce”: A one-year “trade truce” reached between the two superpowers on lowering tariffs and loosening export controls gave global markets a breather. This development reduced the uncertainty created by the trade wars in the short term.
Commodity Records: While silver broke an all-time record; gold also continued its upward trend. This situation shows that investors’ search for a safe haven and industrial demand (for silver) continues.
Tech Stocks Rally: In the US stock markets, sharp upward movements were seen in technology stocks (Nasdaq) with the strong balance sheets of tech giants like Amazon and artificial intelligence optimism.
Aviation Crisis: Grounding some Airbus planes for technical reasons led to capacity problems and stock-based fluctuations in the aviation sector.
(Summarized using Artificial Intelligence.)
If I need to compare my portfolio return with the BIST100/SP500 indices; my portfolio dropped by 2.82% in November. In comparison, the BIST100 index dropped by 1.64% in dollar terms, and the SP500 dropped by 0.22%. The main reason my portfolio dropped more compared to these indices is that my portfolio is heavily weighted in artificial intelligence and technology. In October, the S&P500 index had dropped by 1.92%, and the BIST100 had dropped by 1.25% in dollar terms. Alongside these, my portfolio had increased by 8.10%. Just as my portfolio increases more when the index goes up a lot, my portfolio drops more when in uncertainty.
Let’s get to my investments in order;
US Funds & Stocks
In November, thanks to my monthly investment that I make every month, I added a total average of $110 to VTI and VEU funds. Besides this, I completely closed my SMR position. Even though I think the Nuclear Energy sector will grow a lot in the future, on the one hand, I know that SMR’s increase in the past period was artificial intelligence-driven, and frankly, this situation did not give me confidence. I will explain the reason in more detail in the article I will write this week on the subject of artificial intelligence. I also reduced my GOOGL stock and sold 1.5 shares. Actually, even though I didn’t want to sell, I promised myself when buying GOOGL that I would do some profit realization by selling a bit when it reached the $300 price, and therefore I made a small sale. I don’t plan on making more sales in the future.
Other Funds & Stocks
When looking at my Other Funds & Stocks, the only thing that stands out is the 5 BIST stocks. Even though I think long-term investing in Borsa Istanbul is problematic, I am of the opinion that much better results can be achieved by investing in the short-medium term. For this reason, rather than finding stocks myself, I copy the model portfolio of a content creator every month. We will see together what kind of result I will reach in the long term. 5 stocks change every month, and I buy the new 5 stocks in the same amounts at the beginning of the month.
Crypto
Finally, I also made a tiny crypto investment. For now, I only did it so it shows up in the portfolio, but when Bitcoin reaches the price I want (a 60% drop from ATH), I will increase my purchases. I will draw a more detailed roadmap regarding Bitcoin.
Fixed Income
15% of my portfolio is covered by fixed income/gold. Against the stock market that has started to rise increasingly, I hold fixed income and cash products for hedging purposes.
CS2
My CS2 investments are like this. I have now reduced buying extremely and I am just waiting. I adjusted the $2,200 here in such a way that I won’t be upset even if it drops to 0 instantly. These investments, which I made because I trust myself personally, are truly more volatile than even Bitcoin. During the month, it swung towards a plus and a minus, but I was prepared for this and knew it would be like this.
Cash
And these are my cash positions. $1349.8 is waiting to be invested in cash.
Against the market that is rapidly rising day by day and starting to move away from rationality, I will increase my hedge positions, especially gold. It is obvious that we are increasingly approaching a bubble, and in the face of this, I want to have a less volatile portfolio.
First of all, I haven’t been able to write my monthly portfolio tracking for a long time, because I am currently trying to change the portfolio tracking file I use. Although it is a long and painful process, the new file that will replace this one will be much more detailed and beautiful.
During the time I wasn’t writing, my university started, and I learned how different and difficult the classes are from high school. I go to school twice a week, other than that, I follow what is taught from home. It takes me at least 3-4 hours to learn the topics covered that day. The reason I don’t go to university is that the professors only write on the board what is written on the paper they uploaded to the internet. Also, I applied for a residence permit in Germany.
In October, the S&P500 index dropped by 1.92%, and the BIST100 dropped by 1.25% in dollar terms. Alongside these, my portfolio increased by 8.10% last month. If I remember correctly, this increase is the biggest jump my portfolio has ever shown in a single month.
Looking at the investment pages in order;
US Funds & Stocks
Since my last writing, I sold most of my stocks because they were hard to track; among them, GOOGL, AMZN, and NVDA, which I trust for the future, remained. On top of that, I added VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund) and VEU (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund). I will now buy VTI instead of S&P500, but I didn’t sell VOO because I would have to pay taxes if I sold it. Also, for risk management purposes, I will continue to buy VEU on a monthly basis.
I just bought DTCR. To explain briefly, based on the saying “Those who made the most money in the gold rush were the ones selling shovels instead of digging for gold,” I bought this fund, which, rather than directly investing in artificial intelligence—even though I think it’s a sector slowly turning into a bubble due to cyclical investments (I will write a long article about this in the coming days)—invests in the data centers and infrastructure required for artificial intelligence. Through this, half of the fund goes to real estate investment trusts.
Since my last writing, GOOGL and AMZN have gained great momentum thanks to the publication of their balance sheets, and I hope they can maintain it.
Other Funds & Stocks
When looking at my Other Funds and stocks, I bought a little more ASML and sold off the NVOs I held. Although NVO is actually a stock I still trust a lot, sometimes stocks don’t get the value they deserve, or there is a reason that creates distrust that I personally cannot see but the market does. In any case, I thought it was one of the stocks I needed to get rid of because I don’t want to track too many individual stocks due to my time at university.
Since my crypto investments are almost non-existent at the moment, I don’t feel the need to share them, but I erased the $700 loss from the past because it wasn’t a very accurate calculation. Instead, I calculated the average loss of my past investments and added that.
CS2 Investments
Let’s get to a relatively new investment in my portfolio. I also started my investments in the CS economy, which I wrote about recently. Because it is a relatively risky market, I do not want to allocate a large slice of my portfolio to it, but since I have played this game for about 2000 hours, I have quite a bit of self-confidence and believe I understand the game’s economy. My current profit somewhat confirms this thought. I would specifically like to point out that I started investing in CS2 about 1 month ago, and in this period, the $6 Billion CS2 economy dropped to $3 Billion; despite this, I am in a quite high amount of profit.
Although it may sound absurd to some, as Warren Buffett says, investors should focus on value and invest in businesses they know well. For this reason, it is an investment venue that I am personally satisfied with.
Fixed Income & Commodities
Because I generally think that economic markets are a bit overvalued right now, the share of Fixed Income and Commodities in my portfolio has grown considerably. Here, the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (BND) is an exchange-traded fund offered by Vanguard that tracks all corporate bonds within the global investment universe. BND represents a broad cross-section of the US investment-grade bond market. TBIL is a fund that invests in short-term government bonds (T-Bills) issued by the US Treasury with maturities between 1 and 3 months. IAU is simply a gold fund.
Cash
As I just mentioned, due to my slightly decreased confidence in the economic markets, my cash assets have also increased substantially.
Portfolio Summary
This is what my portfolio summary looks like. My total profit is pushing $5,300. Approximately 30% of my portfolio consists of risk-free, cash, and cash-equivalent products.
I changed my monthly investment products and their ratios for the last time and put them in the exact position I wanted. Currently, it looks like this:
50% VTI
30% VEU
7.5% BTC
5% BND
5% TBIL
2.5% IAU
I think this is enough for this month. See you next month.
On the surface, just a game. But in the background, a billion-dollar economy. CS2, formerly known as CS:GO and evolved into practically a new game with a massive update, doesn’t take up space on my blog simply because it’s a game I love. CS2 also boasts a market volume of $5.5 billion in its own right. So where does all this money come from?
What will you find in this article?
How the in-game economy was born and developed in CS2,
Why digital assets are seen as an investment tool,
Why Chinese investors are turning to this market,
Valve’s role as a market regulator (a sort of “central bank”),
Investment opportunities like Operations and the Armory Pass,
Risks and points investors should pay attention to.
The Birth of the Gaming Economy
With an update released on August 14, 2013, weapon skins were introduced to the game. These skins can be obtained by paying money and opening cases. Afterwards, they can be used in-game as desired or bought/sold through the market. Naturally, skins that are harder to unbox hold higher value. Cases brought into the game are removed after a definite/indefinite period, and therefore the price of cases increases in the long run. (A case can only be opened once and then disappears; over time, supply only drops, which increases rarity and price.) So what is the most important condition for all of this to happen? Of course, the player base. If the number of players is not high, the volume will be low because the number of people entering this market will be small. If the player base is large, the volume increases proportionally. Apart from these, free skins and cases are distributed weekly, contributing to all players taking part in the market.
This is where investing comes into play. After all, the definition of investment is putting money into financial markets with the expectation of making a profit. Over time, items from before the game reached a massive player base appreciate significantly in value, catching the attention of investors and most people related to games.
The photo above shows the price history of the first case released in this game. After the initial excitement upon release (which can be thought of as IPOs), it drops to the $0.05 level and then peaks at $167 within the current year. For comparison, a case bought for $1 back then would be worth $3,000 today. (Of course, this example is problematic in many ways and does not provide logical certainty. In the example, the asset was bought at almost the lowest price when it first came out, was never sold for over 10 years, and was then sold at the peak.) Many such data points open the eyes of investors, especially the Chinese.
So why the Chinese?
There are several key reasons behind Chinese investors turning to Counter-Strike 2 (CS2). First of all, since access and investment freedom to traditional investment tools like stocks, crypto, or overseas real estate are limited in China, digital assets are seen as an alternative asset class. The fact that rare cases, knives, and stickers have gained significant value over the years since CS:GO strengthens expectations that a similar return will be possible in CS2. Since rare and valuable items owned in the game are also perceived as status symbols and elements of prestige in Chinese culture, they carry social value similar to luxury watches or cars. Furthermore, the limited supply and continuous consumption of CS2 cases and stickers appeal to investors’ “scarcity”-focused mindset. Thanks to large communities, dedicated platforms, and trading groups in China, this market is tracked almost like a stock exchange; investors try to make a profit by trading on price movements. Finally, the pricing of CS2 items in US dollars acts as a hedge against the depreciation of the Chinese yuan. In short, CS2 has become an investment area with high scarcity and value appreciation potential for Chinese investors, offering both prestige and global liquidity.
Valve’s Role
In the CS2 economy, Valve is not just the game’s developer; it is also the market’s central bank.
It can add a new case or remove an existing case at any time.
These moves directly affect prices; just like central banks guiding markets with interest rate decisions.
The 10-15% commission in the Steam market creates a taxation-like revenue model.
Valve’s interventionist role can cause investors to constantly remain in uncertainty.
Platforms and Trading Mechanism
Since Steam is the official platform of the game, item trading officially takes place through this site, but because a 10%-15% cut is taken from trades made in this market, this platform is not preferred. This is where another feature of the site comes into play: the trade mode. Thanks to trading, users can transfer items among themselves. Although this was the intent, this feature led to third-party sites where users could trade with each other more cheaply. Because prices are more affordable on third-party sites, bulk purchases are usually made through these sites.
Operations and Armory Pass
The two areas in the game where most people—like me—invest are operations and the armory pass. To talk about both in turn; operations are major updates added to the game only at specific times rather than being added routinely. With these updates, various missions come to the game every week, and players earn stars by completing these missions. With stars, things that can be sold later, such as cases and stickers, can be bought from the in-game market. The point I want to touch upon regarding operations is the cases. Each operation has its own special case, and these cases can only be bought with stars during the operation. Due to the nature of operations lasting at most a few months and the limited number of stars that can be collected, the supply of operation cases is quite low. Since cases are opened and destroyed after operations conclude, the remaining amount of cases decreases significantly over time. For investors, cases thus become a very important investment.
The charts above show the price history of each operation from the past to the present. Thanks to their supply decreasing over time, the prices of all cases increase. (Note: The reason why case prices are high at first, drop immediately afterwards, and rise again in the long run is the excitement players experience when operations are released and their desire to open cases as soon as possible and show off new weapon skins.)
As seen from the charts, all operation cases have increased over time. Personally, the first operation I played was Shattered Web, and realizing immediately while playing that the cases would appreciate in value in the future, I bought cases with all my stars and later sold these cases at a much higher price.
For future operations, my investment strategy will be to buy via the CSFloat site when the price of the operation case drops.
The Armory Pass is a relatively new feature added to the game. It’s like an indefinite version of operations, and the items inside constantly change. The Armory Pass is a system where players earn stars by completing missions after purchasing it, and with these stars, they can choose and receive the rewards they want. Players who complete the missions given during the Pass can spend the stars they earn on cases, stickers, graffiti, weapon skins, etc. Thus, the reward selection is left entirely to the player. While the Armory Pass offers continuous content for regular players, some rewards can only drop during these periods, making them rare and valuable in the long run. For example, the game’s developer Valve announced in an update released a few days ago that it would remove a case from the Armory Pass. Following this, the price of the case increased by 70%. My Armory Pass investment strategy is the same as for operations.
I will explain my personal CS2 investments in detail in my next monthly portfolio status post.
Warning: Investments made in digital in-game assets are quite risky. Valve policies, changes in the game economy, or legal regulations can reduce the value of investments to zero. This article does not constitute investment advice and is for educational purposes only.
First of all, hello. I originally started writing about my portfolio status on Medium back in November 2023. In September 2025, I decided to set up a new site and continue from here. For this reason, I am leaving all my portfolio status articles from this time period below.
