This month, I significantly improved the dashboard section of my portfolio. The main issues were the return rate and the compound annual growth rate. Whenever there was a large cash inflow, both of these metrics would go crazy. For example, imagine there is a 28% growth, and a cash inflow equivalent to 20% of my portfolio occurs. In reality, my growth rate shouldn’t change because I haven’t invested the newly entered money yet, but in my file, it was changing. For this reason, I integrated the use of Time-Weighted Return (TWR). To explain simply, TWR divides the portfolio into periods based on new cash inflows and multiplies the returns in these periods to reach a result. However, since I couldn’t do it exactly this way in my own file, I divided it into weekly segments, which reduced the margin of error significantly. Additionally, since the result I found this way will mathematically be lower than the normal TWR value, this margin of error is actually to my disadvantage, but it’s better than seeing that I made more profit with incorrect results.
This month I read the book “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator,” and I will publish a detailed summary of it tomorrow or the day after.
In January 2026, my portfolio increased by 3.52%. Alongside this, the S&P 500 increased by 1.17%, the DJ Commodity Index by 8.17%, Bitcoin by -11.80%, and the BIST 100 increased by 19.34% in dollar terms. Actually, my portfolio was up by 5% until the last trading day, but due to the drop on the final day, it went down to 3.52%.
Entering 2026, the biggest question mark on the markets’ minds was whether the “soft landing” scenario would materialize. As we leave January behind, we face a picture where the pieces have moved both domestically and globally, volatility has increased, but the search for direction continues. Diverging policies of central banks and the mobility in the commodity markets ensured it was an active month for portfolio managers.
Here are the developments that left their mark on the markets in January 2026 and the takeaways for investors:
1. Expected Move from CBRT: Interest Rate Cut Cycle Accelerates
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) cut the policy rate by 100 basis points, from 38% to 37%, in line with market expectations at the MPC meeting on January 22.
Analysis: This move shows that the CBRT remains loyal to its strategy of “gradual easing while maintaining a tight stance.” Even though stickiness in inflation expectations continues (there is an increase in 12-month expectations according to the BETAM survey), loosening financial conditions was preferred to balance the slowdown in industrial production.
BIST 100 Impact: After the rate cut, a relief rally was observed, especially in the industrial index and companies with high debt ratios. The decline in deposit rates may cause domestic investors’ risk appetite to turn back to the stock market, particularly to holdings with high dividend yields.
2. Fed: “No Need to Rush” Message
The eyes of global markets were on the Fed meeting on January 28. As expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in the 3.50% – 3.75% range.
Reading Between the Lines: Powell’s emphasis on being “data-dependent” in the post-decision text indicates a breathing period after the rate cuts at the end of 2025. The US economy cooling down without entering a recession (soft landing) continues to support valuations in tech stocks.
Global Impact: While the dollar index (DXY) traded sideways with this decision, the pressure on emerging markets remained limited. This means “the window remains open” for countries with external financing needs like Turkey.
3. Historic Peak in Europe: FTSE 100
The London Stock Exchange (FTSE 100) broke psychological resistance by surpassing the 10,000-point threshold for the first time in its history at the beginning of January. Although there are growth concerns across Europe, the UK stock market, which is heavily weighted by energy and mining giants, was positively affected by the increase in commodity prices.
4. Commodity Markets: Gold’s Safe Haven Rise
Ounce gold tested record levels throughout the month as geopolitical risks (Middle East tensions and threats to trade routes) kept their heat.
Investor Note: Gold is no longer just a hedging tool; it continues to be in demand due to the reserve diversification strategy of central banks (especially Eastern bloc countries). A 5-10% gold/commodity weight in portfolios was the main factor reducing volatility in January.
5. Macro Data and the “Perceived” Economy
According to TURKSTAT data, the Economic Confidence Index remaining flat at 99.4 indicates that a “wait-and-see” mood prevails in the real sector. However, the sign of deterioration in BETAM’s inflation expectations may continue to keep household spending behaviors (pulled-forward demand) alive. This situation could mean a short-term catalyst for retail sector stocks, and margin pressure for the long term. (Summarized using Artificial Intelligence.)
This is what my American stocks and funds look like. Taking advantage of the dips this month, I added Visa, Mastercard, Netflix, and MSFT to my portfolio. If they show a bit more decline, I plan to increase my Netflix and Microsoft purchases. On the Small Cap side, I added Zeta, but since it’s a small cap, it’s quite volatile; I will make one last addition soon. I might continue my Zeta purchases provided that Weight BV does not exceed the 10% limit.
One last company I want to add to my portfolio is IREN. Although it has gone up quite a bit, since it correlates with Bitcoin, I might make a small addition during a major drop.
Last month, to simplify my portfolio, I sold my NVDA, DTCR, WRLD, and SNAP options. The reason I sold NLR is that I found better opportunities; it’s on my watchlist, and if I see a big drop, I will add it back to my portfolio.
Also, I sold some GOOGL and VTI and added to new stocks.
My other funds and stocks are in this situation. As of this month, I will systematically invest in the BIST (Borsa Istanbul); it was a good start for the first month. I included KTLEV, which was the 3rd highest rising Borsa Istanbul stock last month, in my portfolio. Apart from this, I realized a lot of profit in my ASML position last month. Even though it is an excellent company, its price increased a bit faster than I expected. I completely removed my EVO stock, which is on the Stockholm stock exchange, due to portfolio simplification. In the coming periods, apart from new Borsa Istanbul stocks every month, I don’t think I will give much importance to non-US investments, except for VEU.
I have two crypto investments: BTC and NST. I added to Bitcoin during yesterday’s drop, and if it comes to the 64,000 zone, I will buy a little more. I want to allocate 10% of my portfolio to Bitcoin. NST, on the other hand, is a project I chose myself, its developer is Turkish, and if it goes up, I will exit by taking gradual profits.
These are my commodities. I only hold gold, some of it in grams and some in a fund. Despite the drop the other day, I am still in profit. In the long run, I believe gold will show more of an increase in dollar terms.
Finally, 5% of my portfolio is waiting in cash; I will make a Borsa Istanbul investment with this portion tomorrow.
And this is a one-page summary of my portfolio. The really important metric in the first picture is TWR, but since I could only track this data properly starting from 2025, I made a note there. Also, below that, there is a quality test of my own portfolio. Here, YTD stands for Year-To-Date, and TTM represents the trailing 12 months. Although AT means All Time, the 2025-today data is more important for my portfolio. The Max Drawdown below this section actually shows the maximum percentage drop I experienced to achieve this return. The Calmar Ratio gives a ratio by dividing the annual return by this drawdown percentage. The higher this ratio, the better.
I added a new chart to the tables below. It shows every instrument in my portfolio and its percentage. Although it looks like there are too many things here, the reason for this is the CS2 investments.
That’s all for this month, see you next month.